Work package 2 - dynamics
The aim of work package WP2 is to model the runout dynamics of mass movements and investigate how changing climate influences debris flow, avalanche and rockfall hazard. Based on the scenarios of initial release conditions (developed in WP1), we intend to show how rising temperatures and changing precipitation affect event intensity and runout.
The results will serve as input for work package WP3, where climate- and socio-economic induced changes in risk will be quantified.
The work package WP2 consists of four tasks. Work is centered on the dynamics of three types of mass movement: granular and muddy debris flows (task 2.1), rock/ice/snow avalanches (task 2.2) and rockfall (task 2.3). How protective forests will mitigate rockfall, avalanche and shallow landslide hazard in a changing climate will be specifically addressed in task 2.4.
Special research emphasis will be placed on understanding cascading processes; i.e. mass movements that transition from one process to another based on thermodynamic and hydrological boundary conditions. These serve to represent changing climatic conditions, including temperature and precipitation.
An interdisciplinary task (task 2.5) will link specifically adapted forest simulations models and interactive maps in order to evaluate natural hazard processes, cascading processes and risks for the pilot case study of Davos under the effects of extreme events and climate change.